Property price falls could double: Morgan Stanley
Australian Financial Review 20 Jan 2019 6:38 PM
Duncan Hughes
Property price falls could double previous estimates as weakening sentiment, tight credit and oversupply continue to hit residential markets, pushing falls to their largest since the early 1980s, according to Morgan Stanley.
House price falls are steeper than thought as key indicators, ranging from rental conditions to credit supply, weaken, the investment bank's analysis shows.
Peak-to-trough property declines are expected to be around 15 to 20 per cent, compared to previous estimates of 10 to 15 per cent, which means the most benign best to worst-case scenario has doubled, it concludes.
Evidence of worsening conditions will increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to soften its outlook for the February 5 meeting, with the balance of risks tilting towards a cut this year, a view shared by an increasing number of economists,...