How can any first home buyer afford to save $164,000 for a home

deposit? 

Property forecast: prices to rise by 19% with deposits to hit $164,000

By Audrey Bertin | 14 November 2013

http://www.whistleout.com.au/HomeLoans/News/Property-forecast-prices-to-rise-by-19-per-cent-while-deposit-remains-high

Sydney’s residential market is in fast recovery, with forecast by property forecaster BIS Shrapnel predicting housing prices in Sydney to rise by 19 per cent throughout the next three years. Adding up to this increase in budget for home buyers is the deposit, requiring more savings as prices climb – which prevents many first-home buyers from making the leap.

The median price for Sydney’s houses is $690,430 at the moment, and it is expected to extend to $820,000 by June 2016. Robert Mellor, managing director of BIS Shrapnel reported that the main factors driving this price increase are a strong demand from population and overseas immigration growth and an under supply of new buildings in Sydney since 2005.

Sydney is expecting to have the highest increase at 19 per cent over the coming three years, followed by Perth at 17 per cent and Brisbane at 16 per cent. On the other hand, Mr Mellor predicts housing prices in Melbourne to inflate at a small pace, with only 6 per cent increase thanks to bigger supplies of inner-city housing.

Price growth is anticipated to slow from mid-2015, when interest rates will rise again. NAB chief economist Alan Oster says that “under-supply of houses and very low interest rates will keep prices rising” but that climbing unemployment will let “heat out of the market”. He claims that a rate above 6.5 per cent would have effect on house prices. In September, this rate fell to 5.6 per cent.

At the first rank suffering from these price rises are first-home buyers, especially those under 40. Current conditions are called the best in years thanks to interest rates significantly low, and the average proportion of mortgages repayments to disposable income lower than for the majority of the last 15 years.

What discourages first-home buyers from purchasing is the amount of deposit they have to make in order to take their mortgage.

In the 1980s, home buyers were required to save approximately a year’s average income in order to make the deposit on their loan, confirms study by economist Judy Yates. In 2010, it was about 4 times a year’s income because house prices have risen faster than income over time: 2.5 times in 1985 and 4.5 times in 2012.   This means that the deposit required is escalating faster that savings people are making: borrowers now have to put down in average $12,700 more in their deposit compared to the previous year.