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BFCSA: Stoking up HUGE PROPERTY BUBBLE: Here we go again!

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Total Housing Lending Now at $1.33 Trillion – RBA

By Martin North |  - 12:40 pm

The RBA released their Financial Aggregates to January 2014 today. It shows that Investment and Housing Lending reached $1.33 Trillion. Investment loans account for 32.9% of all loans, the highest ever recorded.   This is a different view from APRA’s because it accounts for all lending, not just ADI’s (Banks) which APRA reported recently at $1.17 trillion against the RBA’s 1.33 to December 2013. The gap relates to non banks and “other” ADIs and includes securitisation.   It shows that non-banks overall are writing less business today, in fact it has been falling steadily since the GFC. Mind you, there are some important deficiencies in the non-bank sector as we highlighted previously. The data I would like to see is the LVR ratios for the non-banks, but this data is not collected.   The other interesting observation is that if you take a long trend look at the ratio between owner occupied and investment lending, we see how it grew, fast from 1990, as banking was deregulated, and credit became easier, continued more slowly in the 2000′s and is now peaking up slightly again.

 MORE INFO FROM GLADYS our intrepid researcher

Shanghai Daily via agencies, November 4, 2013

Hot property markets reignite bubble fears.  From China to Canada and London, fast-rising property markets are haunting the global economy again, five years after the US subprime mortgage bubble burst and triggered the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.  The confidence of policy makers that they can avoid another generalized boom and bust could be tested if central banks keep pumping out nearly free money to support economic growth by encouraging investment in riskier assets such as equities and property.   Plentiful cheap credit is just one more inducement to home buyers who, in many countries, can deduct mortgage interest from their taxable income or are exempted from capital gains tax when they sell their house, said Andrew Oswald, a professor of economics at Warwick University in Britain.  "We're stoking up a huge bubble. It's quite extraordinary. We virtually ruined the Western world by having high house price inflation and now we're determined to do it again," he said

 The Treasury just released the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Annual Report 2002-2013, which provides some data on overseas property investors. The real estate sector was the largest by value, with approvals in 2012‑13 of $51.9 billion and FIRB recorded 12,025 approvals, compared with 10,118 approvals in 2011‑12. In 2012‑13, no proposals were rejected (compared with 13 real estate related proposals rejected in 2011‑12). Real estate was 38% of the total FIRB proposals approved.  “We are essentially becoming part of a more globalised property market and it is unlikely this will change. Given what we know about the state of the market, and that locals are being priced out by other purchasers, including investors and overseas purchasers, we need to be wary of these current trends – so I think the Chinese Factor is a critical issue.  Does the FIRB do more than tick the box? Do they have any real teeth?



Please find below an epic chart pack created by Philip Soos on 150 years of the Australian housing market. Philip is a Masters research student at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin University.

We recommend  latest from Macrobusiness: Time to sell Australian Property


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  • doyla66
    doyla66 Wednesday, 05 March 2014

    Hush hush sweet charlotte........

    The Asia crisis repeating itself all over again along with a different slant! This time in wide screen and technicolour of the most unimaginable magnitude and all because they in control never learned any lessons and thought they knew it all!

    Alas greed and a big lust for power got the better of all of them but just wait and see when all implodes and all the real truths of all they have done and are still doing come out for they are now not just playing with matches but battling a raging bushfire.

    I suspect when some truthful employment figures start being reported in the media (LOL) they might just decide to plunge the dollar to ensure all those overseas investors with open invitations to come on over and buy us out pour in and make a killing.

    No regard at all for us aussies of course who will all very soon be reduced to living in tents but what do they care? They probably laugh with disdain over very expensive lunches at the prospect of us all being reduced to camping in the outback making billy tea, baking damper and hunting for witchetty grubs to feed ourselves knowing full well they have the Government in the palm of their hands (wonder if the Government might end up with a black mark if they do not do not pay their bills on time)?

    Not to mention carte blanche from ASIC for shhhhhhhhh....."all those very damaging secrets re all we did and failed to do must never be revealed for we cannot ever run the risk of seeing our own image tarnished - our motto is we wear out not rust out you know"!

    So here we go again, up to all the same old tricks with a few new rules along with a new kink in the S bend and more exemptions to assist the cause as they soldier on like a nest of stinging bull ants inflicting even more damage on even more unsuspecting people while their heads are stuck in clouds. Makes you want to throw up doesn't it?

    Don't anybody ever dare tell me the property market is not rigged in the same manner as LIBOR and all else in their control or I just might explode before that now too hot to touch almighty big bubble hovering over the entire world does!

  • doyla66
    doyla66 Wednesday, 05 March 2014

    What about us?

    Chinese buyers are expected to purchase $44 billion worth of Australian residential property over the next seven years, according to a report released today by Credit Suisse.

    The investment bank estimates that 12 per cent of all new housing purchases and up to 18 per cent in Sydney and 14 per cent in Melbourne are by Chinese buyers.

    Non-permanent residents are restricted to purchases of newly built properties in Australia.

    According to the report, Chinese buyers comprise an estimated $5bn worth of property purchases in Australia per annum.

    The findings follow Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) data that shows Chinese investors were the largest source of foreign investment in Australian property in 2012-13 (China ramps up Australian property purchases 1 March 2014).

    The number of Chinese who are able to afford an apartment in Sydney is expected to rise by 30 per cent by 2020.

    Chinese buyers bought $24bn of housing over the last seven years.

    The report warns that the amount of foreign investor interest could distort the Australian property market with valuation methods like house price to local income ratios becoming obsolete.

    "Residents of central London have known this for some time. Many of which are well paid investment bankers but are still struggling to buy in the capital where many of the owners are wealthy individuals from the Middle East, North Africa and other parts of Europe," the report said.

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